For the first time in a very long time, Intel is preparing to announce a discrete GPU. But is it reasonable to expect Intel to shake things up in the discrete GPU space?

In a new report, Jon Peddie Research outlines the state of GPU shipments in Q4 2019. The research firm examined both overall shipments and discrete graphics shipments.

Overall, PC GPU shipments jumped 3.4% quarter-over-quarter, but declined 1.4% year-over-year. We are more interested in the discrete GPU data; according to JPR, discrete GPUs were installed in almost a third of all PCs last quarter.

Nvidia accounted for 73% of discrete GPU shipments, with AMD holding a commanding lead at 27% (up from 26% the previous year). However, Jon Peddie believes that Intel's entry into this space will be a "game changer" this year.

"GPU shipments have increased for three consecutive quarters, but the seasonally flat to declining Q1 may show an unusual drop due to supply chain disruptions from China due to the coronavirus outbreak. 2020 could be the year of Intel's entry into the discrete GPU market and, the possibility of a fourth entry by IP companies will be a game changer," Peddie said.

While Peddie did not offer a specific numerical forecast, it is a bold prediction. I also think it is a bit too ambitious a prediction. I am cautiously optimistic that Intel will emerge as a legitimate player in the discrete GPU space (Raja Koduri, who oversaw Vega's development at AMD, is in charge of Intel's graphics division), but whether Intel will have such a big impact so soon is doubtful.

Building a discrete GPU from scratch is no easy task, and doing so quickly is even more difficult. Intel made its plans to re-enter the discrete GPU space known to the world in November 2017, when it hired Koduri to lead the effort. Work may have begun before then, but probably not in earnest, given Koduri's desire to put his own stamp on it.

There is also the question of what Intel's initial efforts will look like. Intel recently handed developers a development board called DG1 (pictured above) based on the upcoming Xe graphics architecture. To be fair, Intel has stated that the DG1 hardware is not representative of the final product that will ship to consumers (it is only for developers), but at this point this is also all that is known.

Intel has not yet announced exactly when the first discrete GPUs will ship, only that they will appear this year.