Not to say that this is a make-or-break year for Intel, but the chipmaker certainly has something to prove to both its customers and itself: while AMD is firing on all cylinders and pumping out 7nm product after product, Intel is still coasting along at the 14nm node. What will 2020 look like?

Intel CEO Bob Swan, in an open letter to shareholders, customers, partners, and employees, talked a bit about what to expect this year; Intel CFO George Davis recently stated that 10nm "will not be as powerful a node as people expect 14nm to be." （In step with his candid comments (in terms of yield, not performance), Swan admitted that it will not partially meet or exceed expectations in 2019.

"Our ambition is to play a greater role in our customers' success [in 2020]. Therefore, we need to ensure that we exceed their expectations and provide what they need when they need it. Last year we were not able to do that, and that was unacceptable," Swan wrote.

"Customers expect Intel to deliver high-performance products and technologies that are critical to their success at a predictable pace. They also expect products that are designed for privacy and security and manufactured in a sustainable and ethical manner. Accountability comes with the territory. We will improve our execution," Swan added.

Intel is in an interesting place. In retrospect, their well-documented struggles to produce 10nm chips created an opportunity for rival AMD to take the process lead, and AMD took advantage of this opportunity, "We've been able to get a lot of our products into the marketplace, but we've had a lot of trouble getting the process to work," Davis said. Davis also talked about this, saying that Intel needed to "accelerate the overlap" between the 10nm and 7nm nodes, and between 7nm and 5nm, in order to eventually "regain process leadership." In other words, that will not happen at 10nm, and Intel's hope at this point is to be on par with AMD at 7nm and ahead again at 5nm.

To do that, Intel will have to execute in a way it has not done in the past year or so. The question is, can it do it?

There is no way to know for sure. Expecting Intel to completely flip the script this year is a bit ambitious. After all, we are already at the end of Q1. But who knows what will happen in 2021 and beyond.

Relatedly, in his letter, Swan mentioned several advanced technologies that could double Moore's Law and continue to be associated with it.

"To keep [Gordon Moore's] vision alive, we are innovating and investing across six technology pillars (process and packaging, architecture, memory, interconnect, security technology, and software) that drive product leadership. At the same time, Intel Labs is exploring entirely new approaches to computing, such as neuromorphic, probabilistic, and quantum, that will open up entirely new possibilities," Swan said.

Swan cautioned against making specific promises beyond what is in the immediate pipeline, including Tiger Lake (successor to Ice Lake), which will be announced later this year for mobile. We also know that Comet Lake-S is coming to desktops soon, which will also be a refresh to 14nm.

The bottom line is that Intel has been saying a lot of the right things lately and is aware of its missteps, but it needs to start achieving its goals (not just talking the talk) to turn the tide.

Some things are beyond Intel's control. The coronavirus outbreak is something that is being dealt with on a global scale, and since it is related to manufacturing, that is where the impact is. Therefore, Swan stated in a separate letter a few weeks ago that Intel is "currently maintaining on-time delivery rates of over 90%."

Intel has supply issues, which should not help. However, Swan basically said that Intel is handling it the best it can.

"We have worked together and partnered in many ways to make this happen. This includes working with local and national governments to ensure worker safety while keeping critical operations running. Intel said, "We worked together to identify short-term shortfalls in shipping capacity across our suppliers by working closely together to share resources, planes, and trucks to provide the best solution for our customers."

The true impact will probably not be known for a few more months. Another reason I think 2021 is a more realistic target for Intel to get back on track.