It's no secret by now that Helldivers 2 is really great and really popular, but according to Circana industry analyst Mat Piscatella, the game's sales in the first few weeks of its release are almost unprecedented and he is quite excited.

"I feel like Steve Irwin just witnessed a rare bird or something," Piscatella said in a recent tweet thread." In an Australian accent, he said, "Rare and wonderful.

The thrill is provided by what Piscatella calls "a genuine inverse decay curve."

"It is rare, especially in big games. 'Growth' alone does not explain the essence, as 'growth' can be temporary, i.e., due to discounting," Piscatella tweeted." Using the term "inverse decay curve" indicates that baseline sales are improving, independent of anything short-term that might affect demand growth.

Piscatella told PC Gamer that Circana (formerly NPD Group) used data collected from all major retailers and various companies, including Sony, the publisher of Helldivers 2, as well as Digital The analysis is based on digital sales provided by Leader Panel participants, according to Circana, who typically comments publicly only on monthly data, but said he wanted to share this nugget because "what's happening in the weekly data was particularly interesting."

"What I'm really referring to here is that in the first 12 weeks or so of a new release, especially a game that comes out outside of Q4, there is a demand curve for most games, and it starts very high, sales peak in the first week, and then over time until demand flattens out and It's a weekly decline," Piscatella explained.

"I posted an example of this in a Twitter thread; Helldivers 2 bucked that trend, and no game has ever shown this behavior on such a scale before.

Helldivers 2's success is especially noteworthy given the server woes that plagued the game in its first few weeks of launch. The infrastructure was completely crushed by the unexpected demand, so much so that Arrowhead had to impose a cap on the number of players and draft Sony into the fray to keep it running properly; Piscatella noted that such problems could have real ramifications for many games facing similar issues. Piscatella noted that such problems can cause real harm to many games facing similar problems, but in the case of "Helldivers 2" this was not the case.

"From what I've read (and personally haven't played it yet), 'Helldivers 2' allows players to create their own stories and have fun even if things don't work out in the game. While not strictly accurate, its emergent form of gameplay and more cooperative nature (even with friendly fire turned on) are very appealing, as evidenced by its continued sales growth since its release (which, as I noted, is very rare for a new release)."

The reverse decay curve "won't last forever," says Piscatella, and sales will probably begin to decline fairly soon "as demand normalizes and word of mouth stops reaching new interested ears." But at least for now, especially in the 2024 market, it's incredibly encouraging and refreshing."

As for why "Helldivers 2" was able to pull off such an unusual feat, he said there are several possible reasons, including its focus on co-op, its $40 price point, its simultaneous release on PC and PlayStation 5, "the high potential for in-game shenanigans that," and several other possible reasons.

"If you really like this game, there are even more reasons," he said. But at the end of the day, sometimes the right game hits at the right time." If developers and publishers could figure out exactly why this happens, they would be bottled up by now. "

Whatever the reason, Helldivers 2 continues to be a monster: it is currently the best-selling game on Steam, third on Steam's most-played games list behind Counter-Strike 2 and Dota 2 and fourth on PUBG:. Battlegrounds by a wide margin. And there's more to come: earlier today, following numerous leaks, Arrowhead finally confirmed that playable mechs are coming soon.