Last month, the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) suggested that Microsoft should consider breaking up Activision Blizzard if it is serious about acquiring the company (opens in new tab). The market regulator was particularly concerned about Call of Duty, so much so that all of Microsoft's proposed methods for satisfying it involved separating COD from the rest of Activision in some way.

Well, sweep that out of your head, because the CMA has now said (opens in new tab) that it has received "a significant amount of new evidence" in response to last month's findings, and has reached a new tentative conclusion that Activision's acquisition "will not result in a substantial reduction in competition on console games in the UK

It said it had reached a new tentative conclusion that the Activision acquisition "will not result in a substantial reduction in competition for console games in the UK.

This is a 180 degree turn! The CMA says that while it is still concerned about the impact of the acquisition on cloud gaming, it is no longer concerned about Microsoft's decision to take COD away from its competitors if the acquisition goes through without modification. Why, it is all in the numbers.

While the initial data indicated that "the strategy would be profitable in most scenarios" for Microsoft, the CMA has since received new information that "provides better insight into the actual buying behavior of COD gamers" and that for Microsoft, access to COD Withholding access to COD "would result in a significant loss under any plausible scenario."

The full text of the CMA's revised findings can be found here (opens in new tab), but inconveniently, a bunch of the new math they now rely on has been redacted.

These are still tentative findings, and the CMA plans to properly close the investigation by April 26, but they are good news for Microsoft and bad news for Sony, which has made access to COD a centerpiece of its campaign against the Activision acquisition.

Activision executives are also pretty excited: In a statement to PC Gamer, an Activision spokesperson said the new survey results "demonstrate a deeper understanding of the console gaming market and a commitment to supporting players and competition." Microsoft has already offered effective and enforceable remedies to address each of the concerns left by the CMA," he said. Activision also took a swipe at Sony, declaring that "Sony's campaign to protect its dominance by blocking our merger cannot override the facts."

There is one more month of investigations in the UK (not to mention ongoing investigations in the US (open in new tab) and EU (open in new tab)). Nevertheless, if Sony's lawyers cannot pull off something miraculous, the momentum seems to be firmly back with Microsoft.