A major bottleneck in Microsoft's proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard is "Call of Duty" (opens in new tab). Both Sony and regulators have expressed concern that Microsoft could use the series as a weapon against PlayStation by making it exclusive to Xbox consoles. Microsoft has repeatedly stated that it will not do this, but in a new response to the UK's Competition and Markets Authority, it also points out that one day it may not matter, as nothing is forever.

Few video game series are as lucrative and reliable as "Call of Duty." The original "Call of Duty" was released in 2003 and became a true giant with the release of "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare" in 2007. It is understandable that Sony would be a little upset at the prospect of losing access to millions of game sales (and even more millions of microtransactions) each year. But what if "Call of Duty" sucks?

"'Call of Duty' is one of many popular franchises, but its long-term success is not guaranteed," Microsoft wrote in its response to the CMA (opens in new tab). 'Relevance to gamers is gained and lost with each release.' [This dynamism is demonstrated by the performance of last year's release of "Call of Duty: Vanguard" (opens in new tab).

Of course, Vanguard is not the only Call of Duty in recent years to disappoint: the 2016 release of "Infinite Warfare" (open in new tab) sold only half as much (open in new tab) as "Black Ops 3" the previous year.

The CMA did not immediately accept this claim, and even if individual titles did not live up to expectations, the Call of Duty series as a whole continued to maintain "sustained high revenue and player engagement" and "gamers who did not like 'Vanguard' were not likely to switch to another likely continued to play older CoD titles rather than switching to a different game," he responded. [However, Microsoft defended its position by referring to Activision's 10Q filing for the quarter ended June 30, 2022 (opens in new tab): "The average MAU (monthly active users) for the three months ended June 30, 2022 decreased by 47 million (12%) compared to the three months ended June 30, 2021.... The decrease was primarily due to a decline in Activision's average MAUs driven by the Call of Duty franchise."

The 10Q filing also cites "Crash Bandicoot: On the Run! as contributing to the decline in Activision's monthly player base, but Microsoft did not include it in its response. Nor did it address the portion of the submission in which Activision states that it "believes that overall trends in MAU counts can be a meaningful performance indicator, but (omitted) period-to-period fluctuations may not be indicative of long-term trends." He stated.

Microsoft may be missing the point a bit, but even if it were, the observation is a valid one: popular video game series can last a surprisingly long time, as we can see from the "Madden NFL" that has been around since the 1980s, but nothing is forever. The bulk of Microsoft's defense in this CMA application (as it relates to "Call of Duty") is based on the economic argument that it is not in Microsoft's interest to remove "Call of Duty" from the PlayStation platform.

But this is an interesting (and, let's be honest, entertaining) perception: someday, there may be a "Call of Duty" so bad that Sony doesn't want it.