Timing is everything when it comes to buying RAM. No, by timing, I don't mean latency, but when you actually pull the trigger on a new memory kit. Prices fluctuate over time and have recently been on the rise; unfortunately, according to TrendForce, DDR4 memory prices are not likely to fall in the near future, but instead are likely to rise by as much as 28% this quarter.

Different numbers are used here. Market research firms had previously predicted a 13-18 percent quarterly price spike. However, after observing price increases for a wide range of DRAM products, including DDR3, DDR4, mobile memory, graphics DRAM, and especially server RAM, TrendForce has revised its forecast for the overall DRAM market and now expects prices to rise 18 to 23 percent overall this quarter.

Looking only at DRAM for PCs, memory prices for smartphones, tablets, and graphics cards will also deteriorate further than factoring them into the equation; for PCs specifically, TrendForce expects DRAM prices to rise 23% to 28%.

This is largely due to increased notebook PC production, which, according to TrendForce, typically peaks in the second quarter. In addition, according to TrendForce, Covid-19 "vaccination rates remain relatively low worldwide," which means that distance learning and telecommuting will further boost demand for laptops.

TrendForce, like Chicken Little, is not saying the sky is falling when in fact all is well. According to the company's own price tracking, the average selling price of an 8GB DDR4-2666 module has already risen 25% from last quarter to this quarter, beating the previous estimate of "almost 20%". And our own price history shows a similar trend. [For example, the best-selling DDR4 memory product on Amazon is the Corsair Vengeance LPX DDR4-3200 16GB kit. It is currently listed for $103, shipped and sold by Amazon (as opposed to marketplace sellers.) Plugging the URL into CamelCamelCamel, an excellent resource for tracking Amazon product prices, shows that just three months ago the same kit is selling for about $78. That's a 32% increase.

Going back six months, the lowest price was $63. In other words, the same RAM kit is now about 63 percent more expensive than it was 24 weeks ago. In case you are wondering, the lowest price in September 2020 was $58. Over the course of seven months, the price of this particular kit has increased by more than 77 percent.

Not all kits have seen such large price increases, but cost increases have become the norm. For example, G.Skill's 16GB Ripjaws V DDR4-3200 ranks #8 on Amazon's best-selling memory list, currently selling for $89, compared to $78 three months ago and $60 six months ago. This is still a 48% increase at the high end of the market.

Silicon shortages are affecting the availability and cost of critical components like graphics cards and certain CPUs, which adds to the tragic state of PC manufacturing in 2021. Things may not return to normal until Intel's Alder Lake and AMD's Zen 4 processors arrive and the DDR5 era officially begins.